Bitcoin Pullback: Institutional Exodus and the $100,000 Critical Support Test

Following a promising start to the week, Bitcoin (BTC) has reversed course, posting a notable decline driven by persistent selling pressure ...

Following a promising start to the week, Bitcoin (BTC) has reversed course, posting a notable decline driven by persistent selling pressure and significant capital outflows. This correction has largely erased recent gains, indicating that improved market sentiment has yet to translate into sustained demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

Key Drivers of the Selling Pressure

The current bearish momentum is primarily fueled by institutional and macroeconomic shifts:

1. Capital Rotation: Optimism regarding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown appears to have encouraged a rotation of funds towards more traditional assets like equities, leaving cryptocurrencies on the sidelines.

2. ETF Outflows: Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have recorded substantial negative flows, exceeding $500 million as of November 7. This highlights a clear decline in institutional appetite and a preference for traditional markets in the short term.

3. Loss of Leverage: The Open Interest (OI) indicator has seen its steepest decline in weeks, dropping to around $32.4 billion. This move suggests a significant loss of leveraged long positions and potential profit-taking, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

4. Altcoin Dominance: Despite a slight recovery in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from "extreme fear," this improved sentiment has not benefited BTC's price. Analysts suggest this implies capital may be rotating into altcoins, further reducing Bitcoin’s market dominance.

Technical Outlook and Critical Levels

Technically, the downtrend remains firmly established, with multiple indicators signaling continued weakness:

• Downtrend Structure: Since early October, Bitcoin has been forming a series of lower highs, clearly establishing a dominant downtrend line. The price remaining below the 200-period moving average reinforces the persistent selling environment.

• Momentum Indicators: Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) support a bearish outlook. The RSI is below the 50 level, showing a broad bearish momentum, while the MACD histogram remains consistently below the zero line, confirming strong downward pressure.

Traders are closely watching the following key levels:

• Major Resistance: $109,000: A move back to this major retracement zone would be required to challenge the current downtrend structure.

• Nearby Barrier: $104,000: This level coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average and may act as a pivot point for a sideways range.

• Key Support: $100,000: This is the most crucial psychological and technical support level. A decisive breakdown below $100,000 could accelerate the current sell-off, strongly reinforcing the dominant bearish trend in the coming sessions.